Seasonality: Ramadan, Eid, Holidays, and Peaks
Baklava Academy • Article 28 • Updated guide for importers, retailers, and hospitality brands.
Key takeaways
- Peak season is a logistics problem as much as a product problem—capacity, cutoffs, and dwell time decide freshness.
- Plan backwards from shelf date (store delivery / event date), not from production date.
- Split baseline vs top-up: sea/road for planned volume, air for last-minute replenishment (when needed).
1) Know your peak drivers
The same SKU can behave very differently depending on the market and channel. Common peak drivers include:
- Ramadan: steady uplift across the month with a strong gifting and family table focus.
- Eid (Eid al-Fitr and Eid al-Adha): sharp spikes around the holiday period, gift boxes and mixed assortments perform well.
- Year-end holidays (Christmas / New Year): corporate gifting, premium packaging, and strict delivery windows.
- Other gifting peaks: Valentine’s Day, Mother’s Day, weddings/events, tourism high season (market dependent).
Note: Ramadan and Eid dates shift every year. Build a rolling seasonal calendar instead of “same month every year.”
2) The exporter’s peak-season timeline (simple framework)
A practical way to avoid late shipments is to treat every peak like a mini product launch:
- Forecast window: finalize your expected SKUs, formats (bulk vs gift), and quantities.
- Capacity reservation: reserve production slots early for high-touch items (gift packaging, private label, mixed trays).
- Packaging lock: confirm artwork, language requirements, and label compliance before peak season.
- Freight booking: book space early—peak weeks often have fewer options and higher rates.
- Buffer time: build in time for customs, inspections, and warehouse receiving—especially during holidays.
3) Product strategy for peaks (what sells and what breaks)
- Mixed assortments reduce buyer risk and increase gifting appeal.
- Standardize top sellers for volume: fewer SKUs = faster production and fewer picking errors.
- Gift-ready packaging needs earlier planning (printing lead times, inserts, sleeves, ribbons).
- Foodservice formats can move fast in Ramadan (HORECA), but require consistent portioning.
Peak season is not the time to introduce many new SKUs. Launch early, then run peaks with proven specs.
4) Air vs sea during peak season
Choose based on the business goal, not habit:
- Air freight: best for short lead times, “just-in-time” restocks, premium gifting deadlines.
- Sea freight: best for planned high volume when shelf-life and packaging are validated and you can ship earlier.
- Hybrid strategy: ship baseline inventory earlier (sea), then top up close to the peak (air) if sales outperform forecast.
5) Quality risks increase during peaks—manage them
- Heat & humidity: can soften crunch and accelerate quality loss—minimize dwell time and protect packaging integrity.
- Crush risk: gift boxes look premium but can be vulnerable—use strong outer cartons and internal supports.
- Picking errors: more SKUs + faster pace = mistakes. Use clear carton labels, batch codes, and pallet maps.
- Freshness promise: align “best before” and delivery windows to the route reality (not ideal conditions).
Peak season checklist
- Build a seasonal calendar (Ramadan/Eid + local holidays + corporate gifting windows).
- Finalize SKUs early and keep peak assortments simple (top sellers + 1–2 gift options).
- Reserve production capacity and packaging materials ahead of peak weeks.
- Pick freight mode by objective: baseline (sea/road) vs top-up (air).
- Plan buffers for customs and last-mile delivery; avoid warehouse congestion weeks.
- Confirm batch coding and traceability for peak shipments.
Related reads: Lead Times • Pricing for Export Markets • Export Packaging